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Ethiopia in Somalia: One year on
By Martin Plaut
BBC Africa analyst
The Ethiopian decision to invade Somalia in December 2006 altered the balance of power in the Horn of Africa.
On 28 December 2006, they helped government forces capture Islamists from the capital, Mogadishu, which they had controlled for six months.
Ethiopian forces, which had been facing Eritrea along their 1,000km border, but were otherwise confronting few security threats, are now engaged on three fronts.
The forces in Somalia are now bogged down and cannot withdraw, as Prime Minister Meles Zenawi recently acknowledged.
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Ethiopia’s invasion is unlikely to bring peace and order to Somalia, or to assist the transitional government to establish an effective administration. Any external force that abandons an inclusive approach and sides with one group against another, is bound to exacerbate insecurity.
It is clear that the Somali Islamists are enemies to the US but arming and supporting a dictatorial regime with the notion of supporting the enemy’s enemy will not bring positive outcome to the US as well as Ethiopians… It is lunatic to think that the Ethiopian army will crush the Islamists. Instead it will raise the patriotic spirit of Somalis and even those who have had negative attitude towards Islamists will prefer to join them.
Any Somali who hates the Islamists will not necessarily like the presence of Ethiopian troops in Somalia but be compelled to join the jihadists
The Islamic Courts forces are made up of a group of clean and pure believers who wanted to bring an end to bloody chaos sustained by warlords and militia leaders. It managed to expel highway robbers and the Mafia gang. However, the US, which tore apart the unity of Somalia, overthrew its government, blew up its stability and starved its people, was not pleased with this achievement and moved in to overthrow the courts.
Ethiopia will pay high price for its interference in Somali affairs.
Disorder will prevail in Somalia, which will become a safe heaven for Islamist groups from inside and outside Somalia, with the help of the Somali people this time round.
Look at the confidence of those brave soldiers…..
We are so proud of you….
Happy New year to all my fellow Ethiopians
I think your assessment is the most accurate account I have read on this conflict. I hope Ethiopian regime understand it.
The most importnat point in the article is that – Knox Chitiyo, head of the Africa programme at the Royal United Services Institute in London, believes the Ethiopian military position is increasingly difficult.
“The government now has daggers pointing at it from all directions,” he says.
“It is facing a multi-front war with no prospect of a military victory.”
THE TPLF REGIME MADE A DISASTEROUS DECISION TO INVADE SOMALIA. NOW IT HAS GOT ITSELF IN A BLOODY QUAGMIRE. SOONER OR LATER IT WILL LEAVE SOMALIA DEFEATED AND HUMILATED.
ET is the peace make in African and most Africans apperciate that. ET will build peace in Somalia and ERI and free the people who are terorizing the citizens of the region. let us build peace and unity
Typical of the BBC reporting they do everything to show the situation in somalia is the same as in iraq .but that is not true and I will put the reasons below 1.the reason america and briton gave to invade iraq is false and saddams government was no threat to them 2.in somalia the UIC was a clear threat to ethiopia they threatend war on ethiopia from the start they invaited all enemies of ethiopia to somalia like the ONLF, OLF, and the Eritrean army 3.unlike america and briton in iraq ethiopia didnt invade somalia but invaited by the only recognised government of somalia for 16 years. so the mission of the BBC and other weastern media is not to report the truth about Somalia but to see same thing in iraq happening in somalia ,like bombings every day thousends of somalians diying.recently reported that 600,000 somalians left mokadisho because of fighting but .if 600,000 people left mokadish there will only be around few thousend people living in mokadisho.We have to remember that for them we are inferior Africans who cant achive peace and progress on our own .
IF THE SOMALI PEOPLE……WETHER THEY ARE IN SOMALIA…SOMALILAND…..DJIBOUTI….OR THE SOMALI REGION OF ETHIOPIA, WERE UNITED,THERE WOULDN’T BE ANY ETHIOPIAN TROOPS IN MOGADISHU AT ALL…..
THE SOMALI PEOPLE NEED TO UNITE IN ALL THESE REGIONS TO BE UNITED AS ONE…..BECAUSE WETHER THEY ARE IN SOMALIA…SOMALILAND…..DJIBOUTI….OR THE SOMALI REGION OF ETHIOPIA……THEY ALL SHARE THE SAME LANGUAGE….SAME RELIGION…..SAME CULTURE….AND SAME BLOOD….
For get about one year long, Ethiopia can stay 100 years if Ethiopia decided to. Yeha
“The EEBC has officially presented the final document of the maps to all the concerned parties, including the UN Cartographic Unit”
“Invasion would be a mistake” and “Somalia would become “Ethiopia’s Iraq.” General John Abizaid
The days of the TPFL gangs are numbered not only in Somalia but also in Ethiopia.
I called it SUCCESS!!
Look at those Troops! They are huge and well feed They are capable to take any asignment!
It bothers me to see a writing of concern with no alternative suggestions. Ethiopia’s aim is stabilization. The Islamists aim is to get back to power at all costs. The writer said Somalis must creat a situation for Ethiopian military to leave. That is creat peace and stability amongst themselves. But This is not the aim of the terrorists (Jihadists). Remember a Jihad was declared on Ethiopia just before Ethiopia went into Somalia.
By the way Mogadishu is not as bad as every body wants you to believe. Of the 16 districs only 4 are infested with terrorists. Ethiopia could take care of those when the time comes. What the terrorists respect is strength, and Ethiopia is strong, and they will be forced to respect it.
Question is would the Islamists negotiate with the transitional government once Ethiopia leaves? probably not. Remember after Ethiopia withdrew 2/3 of its forces afte the initial invation, the Islamists attacked the remaining Ethiopian troops and the transitonal government. So please be careful and listen to the silent majority of somalis. Most do not want the return of UIC, But they also want peace and stability without Ethiopia. The ball is in Somali hands to create the situation for Ethiopian withdrawal. Ethiopia is a catalyst for peace.
there will not be stability in the HORN of africa as long as
ETC….ETC…NEED TO CREATE SOMETHING LIKE A EUROPEAN UNION…A UNITED HORN OF AFRICA…….
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