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Ethiopia: The Dangers Ahead

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07/27/11

  12:52:04 am, by admin, 872 words  
Categories: Ethiopia

Ethiopia: The Dangers Ahead

Ethiopia: The Dangers Ahead

By Yared Ayicheh

Ethiopia’s foreseeable future is slowly, but surely, getting into a dangerous and volatile state. The economic situation has gotten worst and it has made the daily life of Ethiopians unbearable. It is this unbearable factor that may push the submissive and tolerant Ethiopians, collectively, into an angry and aggressive state of mind.

If and when this state of mind does take hold of the masses, the outcome will be an uprising not ever seen in Ethiopia’s history. The revolution of the mid 1970s will not even compare to the fierceness and destructiveness of the approaching upheaval.

What are some of the possible dangers facing Ethiopians in the foreseeable future? Here are some of the dangers that I feel Ethiopians may face soon:

Danger #1 Leaderless Uprising

Although it is tempting for some in Diaspora to think they can ‘manage’ an impending uprising in Ethiopia, it is simply an impossible task to do so from abroad. The total control of the media in Ethiopia by the ruling party and the repression of the civilian population by government security personnel have made it difficult for a covert operation to be successful so far; however, these conditions in combination with the economic failures have created an unprecedented pressure on the population which is only waiting for a trigger to burst out. As a result of this, the upheaval will be leaderless, decentralized and untamed.

Danger #2 Opportunity to ‘Vent’

In the past 20 years, at various times and places, the ruling party has harassed, imprisoned, tortured and killed civilians, and that repressed hurt may be vented out at the right opportunity – an uprising is the best opportunity to release repressed anger. The recent Arab uprisings have shown that when people feel ‘free’ they attack those that kept the lid on them. That kind of venting will not be lead by a group or a committee; instead it will be impulsive, which is conducive for vigilante justice and ethnic violence due to perceived ethnic political power disparities.

Danger #3 Divided Military

Members of the Ethiopian National Defense Force, ENDF, know first hand the harsh condition of daily life Ethiopians are facing each day. It is simply foolishness to think the military will remain intact when a significant segment of the population starts to uprise due to the unbearable living conditions. Once an uprising is triggered, whatever is keeping the military ‘loyal’ to the ruling party will not pass the test of loyalty to the people vs. loyalty to the 20 years old regime. A worst scenario would be a military division along ethnic lines – that kind of division in the ENDF could possibly have an ominous consequence for the nation.

Danger #4 Opportunist ‘Vultures’

Post-uprising Ethiopia, with a weak, damaged, undermined or failed central government, would be vulnerable to elements that are waiting for such opportunity. Armed groups will specially find a power vacuum in Ethiopia highly attractive and may take advantage of it. If this happens, Ethiopia’s political power structure may morph and look more like the era prior to Emperor Theodros II – a fragmented Ethiopia without central government. Perhaps post-uprising Ethiopia would create a situation similar to Somalia were parts of Ethiopia will be administrated by warlords. A Somalia type of situation is what the international community will likely want to avoid in Ethiopia, but after what happened to the US soldiers in Mogadishu in 1993, will donor nations come to the rescue in Ethiopia?

Danger #5 Civil War

Another danger is a protracted civil war. It is nothing new for Ethiopians to fight with each other; nevertheless, what may be a new element of a new civil war in Ethiopia is the factor of the new generation of Ethiopians who grew up under the current ethnocentric political atmosphere. The new generation may have a deeper sense of ethnic identity, compared with older generations who strongly identify themselves as an Ethiopian nationalist instead of over emphasizing their ethnic identity. This new ethnic dimension could make a new civil war in Ethiopia to be easily defined as ethnic conflict, which would be unlike any major civil war in Ethiopia’s history.

Good News

These are just possibilities, but I feel they are more likely to happen given the recent turn of events in Ethiopia’s elections and economic failures, and the unprecedented uprisings in North Africa and Middle East. The uprisings have opened up a new horizon of possibilities for oppressed people all over the world to bring change in their nations.

The good news is Ethiopia does not have to go through an uprising. There is still time to avoid an uprising and step into a better future for our children, grand children and all future generations.

Comprehensive Reform

The EPRDF leadership needs to open up itself for a nationwide, all inclusive political reform, which must include all opposition parties from inside and outside Ethiopia.

Such comprehensive reform can and will save Ethiopia from a possibly looming, unprecedented and dangerous future. Its time we as a society learn from history, ours and other countries’, and embark on an era of sensible politics by overcoming the era of dead end politics.

The time for political compromise is now!

The writer may be reached at yared_to_the_point@yahoo.com

16 comments

Comment from: ababiya [Visitor]
ababiya

Sir, you ask for ‘Comprehensive Reform’ and you said,"The EPRDF leadership needs to open up itself for a nationwide, all inclusive political reform, which must include all opposition parties from inside and outside Ethiopia.Such comprehensive reform can and will save Ethiopia from a possibly looming, unprecedented and dangerous future. Its time we as a society learn from history, ours and other countries’, and embark on an era of sensible politics by overcoming the era of dead end politics".

i think you are just wasting your time to hope melese would pay attention to new ideas. Melese will not come to think about reform until it gets too late. believe me on this, he will never leave his post and or bring reform. all he dreams is to stay where he is now till he get old and fat as that old swine called himself president of Ethiopia

07/27/11 @ 02:26
Comment from: tezibt [Visitor]
tezibt

Guys please do not be very pessimist. I will leave at the end of this term. I am not Mengistu Hailemariam. I am not stubborn. Of course I am part and parcel of the student movement of the 60’s but I believe I have done what I could and now is time for me to pass it to Mr. Hailemariam. Understanding that you love Mengistu Hailemariam, I am handing power to a person with similar name. I am not a fool like the Arabs. I was raised in Adowa and lived most of my adult life in Piasa. Ye arada lij sayasteta bezede shil new yemilew. Stop all the prediction and nonsense. I will not stay for the second. Teregagu

07/27/11 @ 03:20
Comment from: Imperial Body Guard [Visitor]
Imperial Body Guard

“In our own times, there are those expansionists who by shedding blood, desire to achieve their ambition and by dismembering themselves they are seen as tools for alien interests. Our people from Ethiopia shed blood, to save them from disintegration. Those personalities who believe in freeing a country by secession are selfish and prey to outsiders. We will not accept their motives.” Selected Speeches of HIM Negus Haile Selassie I, page 426

“Ethiopia is a country with her own cultures and mores. These, our cultures and customs, more than being the legacy of our historical past, are characteristics of our Ethiopianness. We do not want our legacies and traditions to be lost. Our wish and desire is that education develop, enrich, and modify them.
You all know the continuous effort that Ethiopia is exerting for the development of a profound and high standard education. We need educated and trained persons for research, for the study and development of our country’s resources, for technology, for medicine, for the law, and the administration for our people according to their custom. These are the needs that constrain Us to provide, at all levels, education free of charge. And students, ever mindful of this privilege, should endeavour to recompense their country and nation.” Selected Speeches of His Imperial Majesty Haile Selassie I, page 35

“The aim of those leaders that is based on ambition for power and personal gain is one with no firm foundation and will, consequently, crumble easily.” Selected Speeches of His Imperial Majesty Haile Selassie I, page 471
Long Live the Kebra Negast!
Long Live the Fetha Negast!
Long Live the Charter of the United Nations!
Fire a go burn down the alien imposed federation of secession
The Lion of Judah shall break every yoke and set the captives free!

07/27/11 @ 06:03
Comment from: BPR [Visitor]
BPR

The dangers ahead for Ethiopia you mentioned are scary. You have suggested one key deterring factor (EPRDF political reform) which certainly is one option. But what about you and the rest of us in the Diaspora, do we have rolls? what about starting by reasoning out difference than spreading ethnic abhorrence at every opportunity over the net.

07/27/11 @ 06:43
Comment from: Debtera Asamminew [Visitor]
Debtera Asamminew

Good to make observations but you contradicted yourself deep down to your bone marrows when you predicted leaderless up rising as a factor of danger but at the same time warned of the dangers of organized armed struggles who may assume power.

At the same time, you seem to be dropping flat on the ground in front of the ONE MAN ONE (tplf) PARTY dictatorship and FATALISTICALLY spreading yourself like a smooth Kashmir woolen carpet begging for reform, inclusion and the usual proverbial biblical MANNA from the heavens above.

The culture of dependency and passive fatalism rather than actively struggling and working for once own rights, emancipation, dignity and democratic rights are self inflicted crimes and is a blessing for minority tyrants robbing the wretched Ethiopian people starving to death now for the last 20 years.

As the Tunisian, Egyptian, etc. uprisings have clearly demonstrated Your purely elitists and hedonist corrupt old guard leadership idea is not the ONLY way for the democratic transformations of the 21st century. Leaders are always there among the people and leaders also evolve in the course of the dynamic transformational struggle.

Just lay back like a lazy sloth articulating and waiting for the manna from the tyrant’s new heavenly world to freely drop in to your waiting open mouth.

A sloth is a small South American mammal which moves about very slowly, when it moves at all.

It is considered a sluggish, or lazy, animal because of this, but scientists say that this sluggishness is caused by the sloth’s very low body temperature.

Sloths spend most of their time in trees and seldom come down to the ground. They walk upside down, hanging from branches by their hooklike claws, and feed on leaves, buds, and young twigs. Once their hunger is satisfied, they even fall asleep in that same upside-down position and sleep up to 18 hours a day.

This sounds just similar to some of these BUT NOT ALL chatter box selfish Ethiopian elites.

by the way, Sloth is the desire for ease, even at the expense of doing the known will of God. Whatever we do in life requires effort.

Everything we do is to be a means of salvation. The slothful person is unwilling to do what God wants because of the effort it takes to do it.

Sloth becomes a sin when it slows down and even brings to a halt the energy we must expend in using the means to salvation.

WHAT WE NEED IS DEMOCRATIC CHANGE BY OUR OWN EFFORTS!

07/27/11 @ 07:36
Comment from: true [Visitor]
true

It is a great hope but to think that the regime will turn around and give up this juicy comfort that got itself into, forget about it. BTW, the weakening of Etiopia is needed to make Ethiopia as
Banana republic, Meles will be replaced by another dictator also, no difference. The issue is to put pressure on all especially the UK and USA responsible in putting TPLF regime in power, their government may not care but their people do care so it is up to us to make our voices heard. Every persons oppressed under this regime should come out and write articles against the oppression, every one should come out and tell the story on ever Ethio journals, BBC, CNN, etc…to embarass the regime and its supporters.

07/27/11 @ 09:56
Comment from: Miki [Visitor]
Miki

I will tell you what is a more likely option than TPLF reform.

Let’s hold people to people discussion on how to divide up the country. Oromo take what is theirs, Amharas and Tigrays the same (Also Ogaden.) Let everybody decide which group they belong to- create religious councils to ensure minimum religious related violence breaks out. Let’s settle the status of Addis.

This option should be discussed in every household now. It may be inevitable. We should all consider how we can do our share to make all this turn out somewhat peaceful if at all possible.

none of us should no longer be scared to declare Ethiopia dead and history. Especially Amharas need to stand up for themselves and forget about Ethiopia.

07/27/11 @ 10:20
Comment from: heny [Visitor]
heny

Yared Ayicheh
Listen man, what crap are you talking about? You set dangers from your mucus staffed brain and then you say ‘do not worry that would be easy to handle’. Do you know mirage? you may not know it. Just look it up in the dictionary. That (mirage) is what is in your sight. Not the dangers you talked about iin your myopic writing.
Reast assured, the Ethiopian people are much better without you losers and there is no reason they will die for you, hamburger boys.ekekam

07/27/11 @ 11:04
Comment from: Ras Thomas [Visitor]
Ras Thomas

Yared, you are lier and dreamer of
nonsense. The only jealousy you have
for ruling party made you crazy.
So, you are cursing your country.
and telling its enemies it is weak
and vunarable. Ethiopia more stronger
than ever before economicaly and militerly.
You may be saduced by the puppit
Alamanyuhu, who wrote his trash
this websit everyday.
Alamanyuhu is payed agent of Egypt.
and Egypt wants we Ethiopians to be
hungary forever. and Egyptian kids
to use our water and soil to eat
fats and bread from without we sharing with them.

07/27/11 @ 11:39
Comment from: Shemsu [Visitor]
Shemsu

The writer put Leaderless Uprising as Danger #1 . The question here could be what happened to the leaders within the people?
As we knw there were possible leaders of the uprising who backed out from their leadership post for the planed revolution of May , 2011 .Few days prior to the set young generations revolution they backed down . Why?
Some say they were scared while others say they were bought off. Both has some truth to them.

The bottom line is they backed down for one reason or the other. Usually when it comes to an uprising it is usually left to be facilitated by the leaders Of The young Generation because the youngs are presumed not to have any family members that they feel obligated to protect from possible reprucutions by the government .

But as we seen it recently even the so called young leaders of Ethiopia who were known to be notorious and able to mobolize the Addis Ababa young had been paid of five thousand (5,000) birrs each to sabotage the revolution . These young leaders which mostly reside in the Addis Ketema district in Addis Ababa signed a paper to refrain from any government opposeing actions and brought a so called WAAS (a person to be held accountable) if they participate in any uprising . The bottom line is the Meles Zenawi’s junta is prepared to pay off quiet a bit to quiet down any possible leaders of the uprising . We have seen it happening many times in the last twenty years . The most popular ones that were bought off by Meles’s cadres could be HAILU SHAWEL AND LIDETU AYALEW . This shows that Meles Zenawi knows as long as EPRDF keeps the people poor , that his cadres can easily manipulate the people by throwing little cash here and there. As the only opposition MP in parliament Girma Seifu of the Medrek party said recently “EPRDF’s philosophy is that if you are economically dependent on the government, you will not have the option of raising the political issues; it should be discouraged. The system being perpetuated by the EPRDF makes for a citizenry which is hungry nor wealthy”

07/27/11 @ 17:04
Comment from: john john [Visitor]
john john

Day dreamer keep up dreaming while Ethiopia is moving forward with great vision.

07/27/11 @ 19:20
Comment from: Shewarega [Visitor]
Shewarega

Assumption is a very dangerous game. People have been doing it before and at every single instance they have been proven wrong. For example, take Emperor Haile Sellasie. It is amazing how those who were not even born when he was alive try to belittle him. But those of us who were there know very well how secure he was on his throne. He manuvered his way for six decades wiping all the regional lords off the face of the Earth. He beat 100,000 strong army from Wello at Segalae, and another fearsome one from Gondar at Kuaan/Anchim. He stepped on and estinguished major rebellions from Tigray, to Gojjam, to Borena. He made the country seat to all Africans, all Western leaders including the Queen of England came to pay homage to him. He was so secure in power he almost had a divine stature towards the end of his reign. The man who took him off the throne, Debela Dinsa, spoke truthfully how they, the soldiers, were terrified to even stand in front of him, “fit lefit seyayuachew ege nesu yemil neger alachew” that was his expression. Thru all those long decades he ruled noone even thought he will end up the way he did. Actually, people were worried more like what will happen when he died. Given the “seltan shukucha” among the aristocracy, especially by that sigibgib cousin of his, who was President of the Crown Council. But we all know the end, let alone five years, not even five months before that can anyone predict some blood thristy Major, with a long tounge, would follow the Emperor as the leader of Ethiopia. Not even a single person, including Mengistu himself. Equally, noone would ever think Mengistu and his 3 or 400,000 troops will evaporate and some regional, narrow minded group like TPLF would manage to ascend to power, and plunge Ethiopia into the current division and hatred. Therefore, my advice to you, don’t assume. What happen will happen to the will of GOD not man. But as I always preach in here, the single most dangerous thing that threatens Ethiopia today is the “ethnic bantustan” that is imposed and preached in Ethiopia. You have touched on it in #5 above. A man in Wollega today who is 24 knows nothing but what TPLF hate machine has been feeding him for twenty years now. All he see is ethnic is good, country is bad. All he knows about Ethiopia, is that its a bloodsucking country that did this and that to him, or his ancestors. All he knows is that certain ethnic groups have more rights in certain parts of the country than others (the settlers, that is). Every thing that ties us as Ethiopians has been deliberately destroyed and rediculed. As one TPLF cadre once boasted, even if change comes, change in Addis, does not mean change in Ethiopia, like before. To support that one can also quote Ato Sebhat Nega “Hege mengistu kelaele Ethiopia yelechim beyaealehu.” In other words, if I don’t rule and loot her, I will destroy her. It is these kind of monkeys that are running Ethiopia today.

Having said that, I believe change will come in Ethiopia when we list expect it. Given the stupidity and ineffectiveness of the opposition, to bring a gradual change, and the ultimate arrogance and criminality of those in power, when the change comes it will be quick, massive, and extremely bloody. The military, like 1974, can not intervene and control it, as it is mostly an ethnic run militia of TPLF more concerned about the little village he came from rather than the unity of the nation. Also, the internal problems of the military will manifest themselves making it in effective. As an individual, what I pray for is, the military overthrew the regime from within, kill the 15 or 20 murderer criminals like Meles and Berebekkt, and bring someone like Seye in. Then that person lead the nation towards, true unity based on rule of law, and all voices being heard. That was what happened in Guinea, one General made all the difference. He got rid of the bad guys, then refused to take power. Lead the nation to true elections, and the rest is history.

Ethiopia le zellealem tenur.

07/27/11 @ 22:17
Comment from: DREDWA ETHIOPIA [Visitor]
DREDWA ETHIOPIA

Kefafi Debtera.

AWOK AWOK YE MILLEWU BEZA. Who do you think you are? Ethiopia is in beteer shape Than she eaverbeen.Thank god our wise pm meles zenawi.
ETHIOPI TIKDEM ende ante aynetu ayt ytfa lezlalm.
KE SHABIYA GARA.


07/27/11 @ 22:38
Comment from: lion [Member]  
lion

Too many SHABIA-GINBOT writers who are jelious of Ethiopian development and way to democratic leadership. It is time to come clean and start appreciate what you have, because it could be worse. We need to appreciate the good leadership and excelent party in place, because one day, you might regret to see something worse. Too many of you are just crying faul at all the time, negetive no positive thinking. You need to come to your sense and do something for your people you bounch of loosers, instead of talking and predicting wrong. Habesh na were!!

07/27/11 @ 23:55
Comment from: Demellash [Visitor]
Demellash

Shemsu,

What you said is revealing and very interesting. The tyrannical minority tplf hedonist dictators will never let even a single stone in Ethiopia unturned to protect its undeserved privileges and to deny the Ethiopians their deserved rights. Wherever applicable they will bribe, wherever applicable they will kill intimidate and jail.

The tactics have already been effectively used by Dictator Qaddafi when he started distributing some $500 per Tripoli residents at the start of the uprising to silence the youth.

Meles only observed, copied and applied them while the opposition be it in the diaspora or back home were ONLY rehears what they have learned up to a point.

For the opposition, it is like a barking DOG eagerly chasing a fat RABBIT who may give up the chase when the rabbit runs faster in order to save its skin, metaphorically stated of course.

In reality a determined and knowledgeable articulate opposition may do away with the tplf tyranny within a few days just similar to the Tunisian and the Egyptian youth resistances. Don’t count on families, established and relatively privileged party and community leaders and most of the conservative elites. They may write kilometers upon kilometers but they are afraid of change in practice. They will certainly join the band wagon of change when and only when some one (daring activists) have gone on the offensive and sustained the momentum to continue beyond the initial high wave.

This is NOT surprising at all. What is surprising is the fact that the organizers of the democratic opposition couldn’t effectively foresee the tyrant’s strategy and tactics as to counter it effectively. The truth is that the established so called traditional opposition parties and their leaders are not willing to take risks but are only waiting to collect credits and profits from any one offering them for free.

Part of the winning strategy would have been concentrating on building strong trust,firm unity of purpose among the rural and urban youths, different ethnic and religious groups in all regions. Networking, trust building, rewarding, motivating and leading are very essential.

“Failure is not falling down but refusing to get up.” ~Chinese Proverb

07/28/11 @ 09:14
Comment from: Goo Koo [Visitor]
Goo Koo

DREDWA ETHIOPIA,

kikikikiki…
What are you smoking? Whatever it is please don’t smoke too much. Lefdaadda gemed aaf! Why don’t you write in a language you may understand better? :)

07/28/11 @ 18:32

rebtel

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