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ANALYSIS - Ethiopian opposition impotent as elections loom

11/04/09

Permalink 01:20:18 am, by nazret.com, 751 words, 1237 views   English (US)
Categories: Ethiopia, Politics

ANALYSIS - Ethiopian opposition impotent as elections loom

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ANALYSIS - Ethiopian opposition impotent as elections loom

By Barry Malone

Reuters

When Ethiopia's opposition leaders were freed from jail in 2007, the three most prominent were hailed by fanatical supporters as leaders-in-waiting for sub-Saharan Africa's second most populous nation.

Now, Birtukan Mideksa sits in a prison cell, Berhanu Nega is exiled in the United States, convicted in absentia of plotting a coup, and Hailu Shawel only recently re-appeared in public.

That leaves many Ethiopians wondering where a challenge to the almost 20-year-old government of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi could come from when the country holds elections next May for the first time since a disputed 2005 poll ended in violence.

Despite accusations of a crackdown on dissent, diplomats in the capital say the West would be comfortable with Meles staying on -- as long as he remains a loyal ally in the volatile Horn of Africa and liberalises his potentially huge economy.

Secular Ethiopia is Washington's key supporter in the region and sent troops into neighbouring Somalia in 2006 to oust an Islamist group which had seized the capital.

"Most Western governments want Meles to continue because there is no alternative in the opposition," said one diplomat in Addis Ababa who did not want to be named.

"As long as the elections are semi-democratic, they'll probably stay quiet, keep giving aid, hope for liberalisation of the economy and leave full democracy for later," he said.

Foreign investors, who are showing interest in exporting commodities and exploring Ethiopia for probable oil and gas deposits, want stability, analysts say. If the opposition takes power, the future would be uncertain and investments delayed as foreign governments and lenders jostle for influence.

Rich nations are also hoping the government will relinquish control of its potentially lucrative telecommunications and banking industries in a nation of more than 80 million people.

OPPOSITION FIGURES JAILED

Eight opposition parties are trying to register as a coalition to contest the polls under the name Medrek, or the Forum, while retaining their own structures and leadership.

But most people in the country, and even some opposition leaders, agree that Meles' ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) will easily win in 2010.

The opposition says this is because candidates are routinely intimidated and jailed. The government says the opposition parties make the accusations because they know they have no chance of victory and want to discredit the poll.

"The EPRDF has done its best to weaken the opposition in view of the 2010 elections," Rene Lefort, an Ethiopia analyst, told Reuters. "Fear of repression is the main factor which refrains most opposition members from campaigning actively."

Birtukan, Berhanu and Hailu, leaders of a previous opposition coalition, were jailed in 2005 with other figures after they were convicted of inciting supporters to march on state buildings when the government declared victory.

About 200 protesters were killed by police and soldiers on the streets of the capital in that unrest.

Ethiopia has never had a peaceful transition of power. Meles himself took over in 1991 after a rebel group led by him and others overthrew a brutal communist regime.

GENUINE CAMPAIGN?

The opposition leaders were pardoned and released in 2007, along with some journalists and aid workers, on condition they take responsibility for the violence.

But Birtukan, a popular 36-year-old single mother, was jailed for life last December after denying she had accepted blame for the 2005 bloodshed. Authorities said that violated the terms of her pardon.

The government has said it will invite international election observers, most likely from the European Union, and last week agreed a "code of conduct" for next year's elections with three parliamentary opposition parties.

Medrek -- seen as the most significant threat to Meles -- refused to take part, demanding bilateral negotiations on issues they say were left out, including electoral board reform.

Diplomats in Addis Ababa are now trying to persuade the opposition coalition to sign the code of conduct deal.

Some ruling party members privately told Reuters they were frustrated a deal could not be agreed, and Birkutan released, so there could be a genuine campaign on Meles' achievements.

While some 13 million Ethiopians still rely on some form of foreign aid for survival, the government has reduced infant mortality and poverty rates and says the economy has been growing at an annual rate of more than 10 percent.

"I don't agree with jailing Birtukan," a senior EPRDF member, who did want to be named, told Reuters. "She's a strong opponent, but Meles is good for Ethiopia and I wanted us to debate openly and show the people our economic achievements."

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msg Comment from: hailu [Visitor]
go meles you are anyway better than the others weshella
PermalinkPermalink 11/04/09 @ 03:57

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msg Comment from: Sami 1 [Visitor]
If one pary allowed to run allon by arresting and intimidating the opposition members then it is called dectatorship. Not election.
We have another failed election comming up!
PermalinkPermalink 11/04/09 @ 08:26

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msg Comment from: Tezebet [Visitor]
As long as the elections are semi-democratic, they'll probably stay quiet, keep giving aid, hope for liberalisation of the economy and leave full democracy for later," he said.

What is really Semi-democratic? I have never heard that… it is sad you don't hear this kind of vocabulary when it comes to western democracy only when it comes to Africa and other 3rd world democracy has deferent meaning or interpretation. For them Africa is sub-human and we don't deserve what they have. As long as the leader like Melese server their interest they are fine with him even if he murder his own people. African life is not worth to protect or to defend…

Saying what I said about the western I totally disappoint with our own African leader and the so called opposition…I am blaming the opposition more than anything else these days. Knowing Meles he will do everything possible in his power to make opposition party semi-functional or he kill or send to prison the one who challenge him and treating his power… he is good what he is good. You the opposition should understand and work aginst him 24/7 instead selling your own people for personal goal… no western country including U.S care about democracy when it comes to Africa, western always look their interest they never been for democracy or human right. I don't blame the westerners they elected by the people to serve their people not the 3rd world or other nation. Why should they tell Melese give freedom and free election to his people knowing that a leader who elect by the people always put his people interest first.
Shame on you the opposition the one inside and outside after all these year you can't even resolve your internal problem…
PermalinkPermalink 11/04/09 @ 09:25

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msg Comment from: Tefera [Visitor]
" Ethiopian opposition impotent as elections loom"
...
kezim aybis:'(
the opposition is the victim of its blind leaders who turned followers of their extreme supporters in the 2005 election.
PermalinkPermalink 11/04/09 @ 11:41

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msg Comment from: TEDDY [Visitor]
:)):lalala::lalala::))Who cares who runs against the Leba Zenawi and his thugs .Afterall agazis and banda have already announced the result a North Korean ,a despot Third world regime , Type of 99.99 % of the vote to TPLF and his enslaved allies banda groups .And fool diaspora medias shall once again spread their cries of crocodile about the democratical heaven of their master Zenawi.
PermalinkPermalink 11/04/09 @ 13:03

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msg Comment from: Birtukan4ever [Visitor]
Meles keeps Birtukan in prison because he knows she would win the election with flying colors. It is a sham election. Hailu Showel is meles zenawi's flower girl in the fake drama.
PermalinkPermalink 11/04/09 @ 13:28

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msg Comment from: afarman [Visitor]
VIVA MELES-will vote for him /EPRDF again
PermalinkPermalink 11/04/09 @ 14:15

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msg Comment from: david [Visitor]
tezebt :roll: you need to be practical,
as we speak you are probably living in a district where its budget for one of its schools is twice ethiopias national budget.:!:
of course for the majority of the people in ethiopia the priorities are different from the people in the west.
in my opinion this is what we should do: first we develop our country to stand up on ourselves and that requires peace and stability, in the mean time we gradualy practice and push for democracy and the rule of law. we cant have the democracy the western have today which by the way took them decades and materialized on the back of economic development by these nations. can we:no:
PermalinkPermalink 11/04/09 @ 14:17

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msg Comment from: addis zemen [Visitor]
This analysis is a dagger in the heart of already dying anti EPRDF.anti Ethiopian movement,who were beating their drum for violence.now it is clear that they are not ready or ligitmate to be a candidate to rule the country.they can not bring any case to disrubt any democratic procedure in the country.if they do they will be dealt accordingly.

I had a dream this after noon,I saw Birtukan out of prison, shaking hands with pm meles.and being named justice minister of Ethiopia.
PermalinkPermalink 11/04/09 @ 17:51

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msg Comment from: Ewnetu [Visitor]
Easy to be tazabi and criticize anything . But what have you done? It's not the opposition's responsibility only. If you don't like what you see then do something about it..
PermalinkPermalink 11/04/09 @ 19:06

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msg Comment from: Ewnetu [Visitor]
The west never cares and the likes of Lidetu and Hailu Shewead are looking out for their personal interests (not the country or the people).This will make it clear to Ethiopians to decide on the impossibliity of having a peacful change of power.Only when these stooges lose and get out of the game we see a real opposition.Until then we will have the tplf lead like the derg until someone like Ginbot 7 removes it from power by force. Medrek with Siye, Gebru and Geidada is also a Joke!
PermalinkPermalink 11/04/09 @ 19:19

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msg Comment from: Ewnetu [Visitor]
Addis Zemen - What keys for your dream are as follows. The shaking of hands is the transfer of power. The ministering of justice is what would be administered on the tplf junta for the crimes they commited against humanity and treason of their country, which hopfully would be led by Birtukan as the next "Leader of Ethiopia!". Read the Book of Eshter about hamma(meles) and Modachai(Birtu_Can)!!!
PermalinkPermalink 11/04/09 @ 19:29

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msg Comment from: DEMOCRASY NOW! [Visitor]
Thank you Tezebet [Visitor].
I agree with you, with the exception of your judgment regarding the oppostions' inability to resolve the differences among themselves.
As you said there's no scuh as semi-democrasy or full democrasy as far as I know. Yes; countries differ in so many things. Based on their differences the issues they give priority differ. To me that doesn't mean this or that country follows full or semi democrasy. As far as they respect the law of the land and the leaders consult their people through the legaly established bodies democracsy they practice is by itself "full".
You expressed your disappointment IN the opposition with the following: "...all these year you can't even resolve your internal problem…"
I don't have a problem with you here too. But my concern is you didn't include other sectors of the citizens...the neutrals, the religious leaders, community leaders(if there are any), the elderly...I always try to read this forum. What I see is name calling, character assasinations...Do you think all these is done by the meles kids? I don't think so. So, the oppossition is not the only one which plays into the hands of the dictators.
Are we really ready to inform and enlighten each other ? I wish I could tell you one of my worst encounters with a person I met recently. I said it's the worst, because it left me with bad impression ...and it created a conducive situation to recall some stuffs I ignored before... At last I concluded that SOME OF OUR INTELIGENTIA ARE IGNORANT OF THEIR COUNTRY,NO RESPECT OF PEOPLE, NO RESPECT OF DIFFERENT OPPINIONS, ARE NOT BETTER THAN THE TRANTS THEY OPPOSE. I DON'T THINK THEY READ ANY OTHER MATERIAL THAN THEIR FIELD OF STUDY.
AS FAR AS I KNOW THE ELDERLY (THOSE WHO NEVER WENT TO SCHOOL) USED TO RESOLVE VERY SERIOUS PROBLEMS AMONG COMMUNITIES THROGUH DISCUSSIONS. HERE WE ARE RUNNING TO LABLE A CERTAIN NAME TO THOSE WHO HAVE DIFFERENT VIEWS AND IDEAS THAN OURS. ARE WE READY TO RESOLVE THAT?
One more thing about the opposition I would like to express is that they are not only inable to resolve their differences among themselves (I forgot to note what I mean by "their differences". Here I'm not tslking about their programms. I'm talking about pulling their powers together to pressure the meles gov to listen to them. Planing together method of struggle. Wherever they can forming new oppositions by uniting the existing oppositons and lowering their number,...).
It should have been NUMBER ONE weakness, instead of secondary. EACH OPPOSITION IS NOT IN A SITUATION WHERE YOU CAN SEE THE DIFFERENCE AMONG THEMSELVES. THEY ARE NOT ABLE TO USE THE EXISTING TECH PROPERLY TO SELL THEMSELVES AS AN ORGANIZATION FIRST OF ALL AND THEIR PROGRAMMS. I KNOW SOME OF THEM MIGHT HAVE FINANCIAL PROBLEMS. MOST STILL THINK FEW DEMONSTRATIONS CAN BRING DOWN THE ETHNIC BASED GOV. WHAT THEY DIDN'T UNDERSTAND IS THAT THE MELES GOV IS USING THIS TOOL APROPRIATELY FOR ITS AGENDA_DISMANTLING OF ETHIOPIA.
.....
I don't know HOW you will react to the david [Visitor]'s post. But I would try to say few words on it and expect to hear from you.

david [Visitor WROTE:
"...in my opinion this is what we should do: first we develop our country to stand up on ourselves and that requires peace and stability, in the mean time we gradualy practice and push for democracy and the rule of law. we cant have the democracy the western have today which by the way took them decades and materialized on the back of economic development by these nations. can we"
First of all I would like to thank david for the civility and I urge all of us to be open to a free discusion. david didn't tell us to swallow his opinion. He told us his opinion. He ended his opinion whether we have an alternative or we ascertain his. Now I feel free to say a few words regarding his post. Because he didn't create a negative atmosphere or environment for me.
I'm not an expert on development. But thanks to the modern tech I could read some materials.
HUMAN FACTOR is the main component for development. How can we develop while this factor is in GREAT JEOPARDY? CITIZENS ARE DENIED BASIC HUMAN RIGHTS. PROPERTY RIGHTS ARE BEING VIOLATED EVERYDAY....YOU MAY ADD MORE.
david didn't tell us how democracy would be a problem for peace and stability. In the contrary, lack of democracy would lead to social unressst and in its worst case breeds wars. The meles kids tell us that they came to power to bring democrasy. Is david telling us that was a regretable thing and tells us not to repeat it? Or WHAT?
What he's telling us is a little different than what meles is telling us. meles is telling different kind of democrasy_was revolutionary democrasy?
Is there some one who asks western democracy in its totallity for Ethiopia? As david acknowledges it took several years the western develop. They followed the "normal" flow of development. Most of them were establishe with the consent of their citizens. We are not asking too much. We are asking the meles gov to respect its own constitution.
We shouldn't abstract the quest for democracy. We are asking the gov to let people decide what's good for them. Our for fathers were able to survive the colonial period using their GOD GIVEN WISDOMS. They didn't go to the modern and sofisticated universities to learn politics or government.Am I belittle THE ROLE OF EDUCATION in one country's development. In the contrary...What I'm saying is meles can use this pretense as an excuse to continue his dictatorship. We are better educated and have more facilities and legal systems than OUR FORFATHERS TO ENJOY DEMOCRASY AND DEAL WITH ITS NEGATIVE ASPECTS.
There is no reason for postponment of democratic rule. Don't these kids feel shame when they tell us that we are not ready for democrasy?
RACISTS ARE WASTING THEIR TIME BY TELLING US THAT WE ARE NOT READY FOR DEMOCRASY.....
DEMOCRASY IS NOT A LUXURY COMMODITY! DEMOCRATIC LEADERS NOW!
PermalinkPermalink 11/04/09 @ 23:01

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msg Comment from: Tezebet [Visitor]
david, what part of the thing I wrote doesn’t look like practical for you. I have no problem that you don't like what I said, but I want to put few points that might help you to understand what I am trying to say…

1. Let us not mention the western democracy for a moment just to make you happy, and see the one we see in some of the 3rd world country. Our progress or democracy can't even compare with these countries. I did not come to this world yesterday…
2. You said, "We develop our country to stand up on ourselves and that requires peace and stability…" I don't know about you I am a believer without stable government no country can't feed or develop. Without accountability there is no country can progress, without national unity there is no country can grow, Look the country that people vote their leaders are the one who have stable economy growth. I need you to tell me one democratic country that has a problem like we had.
3. You said, "The rule of law…" the rule of law is the corner stone of everything. In our country there is no rule of law and there is no a system that protect the citizen of that country from the unlawful persecution or killing. No accountably, our country lead by a few who are not even qualified to be a leader that nation… it is not about their knowledge I am talking about (that is another issue) I am taking about they hate that nation form the beginning and they work against that nation interest…
4. I don't by it when people said that first economy than democracy it is should be the other way… the rule of law, accountability and then we will see growth… how in the world you expect that country to grow and feed her citizen when a few become rich and rich and the poor are poorer the day by goes. Don't tell me Ethiopian people economy growth help the poor people. We have more poor people today than ever…
5. No question about and I am one of the people always said "the dead Woyne is the good Woynae" when it comes to Ethiopian issue… TPLF has to go and buried some where in tigrria for good. So my friend I am for all the opposition except the opposition that organized ethnic base…. But at the same time I am not stopping to tell the opposition that if they want to win they should cooperate and work together their struggle can't go inch.

Saying what I said, I am telling you that 2010 election is full BS. Actually 2005 was the best time for any opposition… the election of 2010 help TPLF not Ethiopian people.
PermalinkPermalink 11/06/09 @ 09:29

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msg Comment from: Tezebet [Visitor]

Ewnetu, as an Ethiopian and live aboard since when I was 17 I try to contribute what I can to the opposition that I think they are good to Ethiopian people and Ethiopian interest the last 18 years. I can't tell or say what I did to my people… even if I said it you don't believe me. But one thing I try to tell you what is wrong expressing my concern? What is wrong telling then the opposition that the last 18 years you try the same thing and fail over and over? What is wrong as an individual expressing my feeling to the country I grow up and raised?

You said, " If you don't like what you see then do something about it…" my friend going out and open a political parties can't help that country, unless the leader of the opposition collectively agree to put Ethiopian agenda more than their individual interest. I don't want to be like Yeha, Z-mike to blindly support one party just because I want them…
PermalinkPermalink 11/06/09 @ 09:37

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msg Comment from: floatsom [Visitor]
Flippin' a bird be-ashmur?
I am 1000(%)
PermalinkPermalink 11/06/09 @ 10:59

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msg Comment from: shibiruxmillion [Visitor]
abet ye midget bezat she's towering them.
PermalinkPermalink 11/06/09 @ 11:08

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msg Comment from: Tezebet [Visitor]
DEMOCRASY NOW!

First and for must I did not see anything that I disagree whit you response. However you are not happy about me to be harsh on the opposition. My friend I am really frustrated with all the group that they said they are opposition. To honest the struggle might take so many years however at least why these guy seat come out some kind of cooperation. Every time they break up like a peace off ice do they understand how much they killing the moral of the people? 18 years practically there is no strong party that challenges these bloodsuckers… All I saying if they are fighting to bring the rule of low to that country they should act like a leader. I travel Ethiopia and I tell you my friend the Ethiopian people had it. they need the leader… 2005 was evidence that Ethiopian people don’t like to see TPLF as their leader…. Kinjit is a six month opposition party but they challenges the TPLF (the party has the entire thing for 30 years money, organization skill and so) what is that show you…why not the opposition read the people mind.

About the citizen and the individual who give blend eye and the rest of civic organization yes they are responsible too… by the way we all responsible for the faller of that country…
Other than that thank of for you educational note…

Hope we will exchange ideas in the future…

PermalinkPermalink 11/07/09 @ 11:14

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msg Comment from: david [Visitor]
tezebt and democracy now
i am not trying to undermine ethiopia or democracy what i am trying to say is we shouldnt let the demand/fight/quest for democracy destroy our nation as it did for the past 35 years. to begin with what is democracy TODAY in the context of ethiopia. for example democracy for an ogadeni and/or oromo who support onlf and olf is the referndem on independence or unity as per their organization cause, period. for me and you maybe its simply allowing the people to elect their leader and once that happened who knows what follows (remember kenya).
the fact is you and i could be here bickering about democracy if we were alive say 50 years from now as we probably were 35 years ago. but that is still ok my fear is lets not allow the ever elusive democracy destroy our nation and keep us in poverty. we have to agree, at least after 35 years of futile effort which consumed over 1 million of our peoples lives, that the only way we can achieve democracy is peacefully and gradually. if we can manage a semi democracy where there is opposition with hundreds of seats in parliament, that can gradually grow and private press that is semi independent that will be a place to start.
PermalinkPermalink 11/07/09 @ 15:23

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msg Comment from: addis zemen [Visitor]
Ewnetu [visitor]
Thank you for trying to solve my dream.
The main important subject here is about birtukan being mislead by the pretentious politicians in the diaspora.personally as far as I know birtukan is a good person and totally different from the rest of diaspora self centerd politicians. They have a hidden agenda which never include the Ethiopian people.they are about vingeance,hatred.and mostly power hunger.I believe she individualy can bring some contribution to the Ethiopian govt fight to eradicate our #1 enemy POVERTY.I believe she is a true Ethiopian,and deserve a second chance.
My dream is just a lone good samaritan wish.
PermalinkPermalink 11/07/09 @ 18:54

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