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Could Ethiopia become the Biggest Economy in East Africa?
Ethiopia's GDP growth for 2008 is estimated to be at 8.0% and GDP will grow to $20 Billion, according to "The World in 2008" from The Economist Intelligence Unit. The GDP in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is estimated at $84 Billion. Inflation is at 12% and with a population of 85.1 million, the GDP per head is estimated at $229. Kenya is the biggest economy in east Africa in terms of official exchange, but Ethiopia is closing the gap. Not many years ago, Kenya's economy was almost twice that of Ethiopia's and this is no longer the case.
Ethiopia could soon become the biggest economy in East Africa if the economic growth of the past few years continue. But considering the population of Ethiopia, GDP per head still lags that of Kenya by far. When comparing the GDP in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), Ethiopia is already the biggest economy in East Africa. For 2008, Kenya's GDP is estimated at $25 Billion.

The Economist Intelligence Unit also predicts that standoff with Eritrea will be 'fester', but a return to war is 'unlikely'.
*Sudan is not included in the East Africa region for this blog. See map of East Africa here
Pictures of Addis by Solomon
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Ed's Note:
Below is the raw data from The Economist and the question for our visitors is Could Ethiopia Become The Biggest Economy in East Africa?
Another data from The World Bank, in 2002 Ethiopia's GDP was $7 Billion and Kenya's was $13 Billion (almost twice). In 2008 The Economist predicts Ethiopia's GDP to be $20 Billion and Kenya's to be $25 Billion. Based on these, could Ethiopia soon (in few years) become the Biggest Economy in East Africa?
Granted Ethiopia's GDP needs to be at least $54 Billion just to match Kenya's GDP per head, but the question is, whether Ethiopia could soon become the biggest economy in East Africa? Perhaps a bragging right.
Ethiopia
GDP growth: 8.0%
GDP: $20bn (PPP: $84bn)
Inflation: 12.0%
Population: 85.1m
GDP per head: $229 (PPP: $990)Kenya
GDP growth: 5.6%
GDP: $25bn (PPP: $63bn)
Inflation: 7.4%
Population: 38.5m
GDP per head: $640 (PPP: $1,640)
Comment from: ፊታውራሪ Free [Member] ADDIS ABEBA - From all economic endeavors underway in the country, Ethiopia could be said on the right track for growth and development, but the country is not performing well in its trade and development, according to UNCTAD's new edition of Trade and Development Index (TDI).
In fact, Ethiopia is rated as one of the poorest performing countries in trade and development, way behind many of the countries in Sub-Saharan Africa that have registered significant economic achievements.
The index puts Ethiopia on the 114, three steps down from its 111th rank in 2005.
The TDI shows there have been improvements in the country's economy in 2006 compared to 2006 where it scored 379 points from 373 in 2005.
But that meant insignificant compared to other countries in the Table.
The new UNCTAD report was launched on Tuesday at the UNCC.
Ethiopia's poor economic performance came as a surprise to many at the press conference after a lot has been said of the country doing well in its efforts towards eradicating poverty and ensuring sustainable development.
Several African economies are now showing signs of the positive growth needed to end decades of poverty, poor growth and stagnation in the continent, according to a recent World Bank report released on Wednsday.
The UNCTAD report appears to paint a gloomy picture on the country's prospect of achieving the UN-set Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
The TDI is very much reflective of whether or not a country is doing well in its economic performances and, its chance of reducing poverty and meeting the MDGs.
"The TDI is a benchmark, a measure to the degree of integration between trade, economic and social development," said Sudip Ranjan Bassu, one of the co-authors of the report at the press conference.
The country's ability to enhance the growth would be critical in its bid to meet the MDGs on poverty and sustainable growth.
The US, Germany, and Denmark are the top ranking countries ranking 1st to 3rd respectively from the western world, while South Africa, Mauritius, Tunisia, Madagascar and Uganda are the top ranking African countries in the index.
Rajan Bassu pointed out that Ethiopia is among the laggards even in the eastern African countries which include Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda, Malawi, Brundi and Zambia which stood from first to the seventh ranks, Ethiopia being the eighth.
Poor results in the index means that Policy makers Ethiopia and other countries which are not performing very well need to employ other measures such as macroeconomic and financial management, as well as trade support and industrial policies, Rajan Bassu said reiterating UNCTAD Secretary-General Dr Supachi's words at the Geneva launch of the index.
"Only then will they close the gap with more advanced economies," Rajan Basau stressed.
The TDI was launched in Geneva on the 6th of November 2007 and shows how countries performed in trade and development in 2006.
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Source: Daily Monitor, Nov 15, 2007
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